A majority of the historic analogues selected for the 2020/21 outlook (four out of five) indicate multiple severe TCs (at least three or more) that were equivalent to or greater than category 3 occurred in seasons similar to the present. When dangerous weather is forecast, please heed the advice of your local meteorological service, civil defence, or disaster management offices. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. All analogue seasons had at least one cyclone of category 3 or greater strength, and a majority of the analogue seasons (4 out of 5) experienced a minimum of three severe cyclones (≥ category 3). Analysis of tropical cyclone track sinuosity in the South Pacific region using ARCGIS. By Jeffrey Kleintop. Benjamin Curry Editor. Funaki says people should prepare for above-normal rainfall during the 2020/2021 cyclone season. On average, one ex-tropical cyclone passes near the country each year. Samoa National Statement Tropical Cyclone and Climate Outlook 2020-2021. This could support impacts in New Zealand that are a bit unusual for La Niña. For the tropical cyclone season (November 2020-April 2021), NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook indicates that the risk for New Zealand is elevated. A total of 9 named cyclones are expected this coming season (spread of 8-10 based on past analogues), which is close to or slightly below normal activity. At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cool (negative) while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has recently been trending toward cool conditions. The risk of an interaction for New Zealand (with at least one cyclone coming within 550 km of the country) for the 2020/21 season is elevated. This owes to a moderate-to-strong La Niña signal, which the models are capturing, increasing forecast confidence. For the tropical cyclone season (November 2020-April 2021), NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook indicates that the risk for New Zealand is elevated. Anna-Louise Jackson Contributor. All communities, regardless of changes in TC risk, should still remain vigilant and be aware if the regional climate situation (including ENSO) changes. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. Tropical cyclones have long been considered the most devastating weather phenomena to affect Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 35: 676-686. doi: 10.1002/joc.4012. The domain for the seasonal outlook encompasses a basin that is defined by climatological properties of TC occurrences rather than geopolitical or meteorological service administrative boundaries (Diamond et al., 2012). [1] The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is an extensive Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation feature that contains one of Earth’s most expansive and persistent convective cloud bands. doi: 10.1002/joc.3753. Mean sea level pressure (MSLP) is forecast to be below normal from Papua New Guinea to the Gulf of Carpentaria, across the Coral Sea region, near New Caledonia and Vanuatu, and southward toward northern New Zealand, consistent with La Niña conditions. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. The season officially runs from November 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021 and would count towards the season total. National Statement on Climate and Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for 2020/2021 ... 2020/2021 tropical cyclone season. Monthly Weather Review, 136: 3637-3654. The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. The analogue guidance has one primary cluster of enhanced activity extending from the Coral Sea to the south of New Caledonia. Ben Macartney. During November, the convectively active phase of the MJO is expected to be over the Pacific to start the month before moving into the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Figure 5. All rights reservedPrivacy Policy, 2016, Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464) Contact details, Principal Scientist - Forecasting and Media. A southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is typically observed during La Niña and the model guidance is supportive of this shift. Macro Outlook 2021: A V(accine)-Shaped Recovery. Updated: Dec 14, 2020, 12:37pm. The cooler than average equatorial SSTs, associated with La Niña, are forecast to be enveloped by warmer than average SSTs about much of the Southwest Pacific. If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, there is a near-equal probability of it tracking to either the east or west of the North Island, and landfall of a degrading ex-tropical cyclone is possible. Real-time MJO monitoring is also available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/. Cyclone Dust Collectors Market Outlook 2021-2026: Strategy Challenges and Worldwide Top Players Analysis. Forecast Highlights. We identified ten ex-tropical cyclones using five analogue seasons in this outlook that passed close to New Zealand, which gives a rounded average of 2 ex-tropical cyclones per year. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. On average, one ex-tropical cyclone passes near the country each year. The northern Tasman Sea also observed significant increases, with monthly anomalies of up to 2.0˚C. If the green line is inside the middle … Benjamin Curry … It is above consensus forecasts for growth in most major economies in 2021. Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464), Copyright, NIWA. The coronavirus pandemic still dominates the global economic outlook heading into 2021, with the second wave of the virus prompting renewed national lockdowns in Europe and tighter restrictions in the US. world meteorological day; climate products. The NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central Pacific) for October (through the 25th) was -0.86˚C, decreasing from -0.71˚C last month. The spatial anomalies shown for this TC outlook strongly indicate reduced risk of cyclones for American Samoa, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands. Below you will find the Samoa National Statement Tropical Cyclone and Climate Outlook 2020-2021 from the Samoa Meteorology Division for your information. Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal in the north of the North Island and the east of the South Island. The Cyclone Festival of Cycling attracts thousands of cyclists and spectators to the North East. Most other islands to the east of the International Date Line are expected to have reduced TC risk for the season. Warmer than local sea temperatures, sub-tropical winds, the persistence of high pressure, and strong climate model agreement support this outlook. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE forecast:  ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates 80% (near normal amounts) of seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, a metric derived from tropical cyclone intensity and duration, across the basin as a whole. Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty. Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. 3 days ago Australia Leave a comment 5 Views. TC intensity is partly related to how long developing cyclonic systems reside in the tropics and gain support for their growth from underlying warm waters. Tasman Sea and east of the country). The season will officially run from October 15 2020 to 30 April 2021, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021 and would count towards the season total. Figure 4: Early season (November to January; top panel) and late season (February to April; bottom panel) anomaly plots for selected TC analogue seasons (data courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Fiji Meteorological Service: 2020/2021 Tropical Cyclone Outlook - “Near average to below average cyclone season” Format News and Press Release The method is calibrated using the IBTrACS data set and several key climate indices for the Southern Hemisphere (see Magee et al., 2020 and the supplementary material for more details). In total, 9 TCs are expected for the Southwest Pacific region1, ~20% fewer than the 1970-2020 average (11 TCs); however, the probable range of TCs is between 6 and 10 … In the Pacific Islands, please contact your local national meteorological service for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. A Microsoft 365 subscription offers an ad-free interface, custom domains, enhanced security options, the full desktop version of Office, and 1 TB of cloud storage. Mr. Chris NobleManager, Severe Weather ServicesTCWC (Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre) WellingtonMetService New ZealandTel: +64 4 470 1175. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance expected for the coming three-month period, with the following outcomes the most likely (but not certain) for this region: Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington. Fri 11 Dec, 2020 - 12:26 PM ET. TCO-SP is a long-range tropical cyclone outlook based on a multi-variate statistical method generated using Poisson Regression (Magee et al., 2020) recently published in Scientific Reports. It does not take a direct hit or a severe cyclone to cause significant damage or life-threatening weather. Near or above normal MSLP is predicted to the east of Fiji, particularly near and east of Samoa and American Samoa (Figure 7 & 8). 20 October 2020. This outlook is a general guide to the overall TC season activity near the American Samoa basin (300 nautical miles from Tutuila) and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will either make landfall or directly impact American Samoa. FULL INTERVIEW: 2021 will likely be another active Atlantic hurricane season, new outlook predicts. Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. There is strong agreement for above normal rainfall from New Caledonia to the Cook Islands, including most island groups in between (Figure 5 & 6). 2021 Stock Market Outlook: Covid Vaccine, Political Gridlock, Possible Recovery. Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal (50% chance). The expected activity over Africa and the Indian Ocean is atypical of La Niña and may continue at times over the upcoming three month period. Temperatures are very likely to be above average (65% chance). Forecast confidence for temperatures is high. Sky News Weather channel’s Chief Meteorologist Tom Saunders has today released the annual long-range Severe Weather Outlook 2020/2021, now in its tenth year. 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